Macau Expected to Hit US$29 Billion in 2024, According to CLSA Estimates

An analyst at CLSA Ltd, Jeffrey Kiang, has projected that the Macau gaming industry could generate a substantial US$29.2 billion in gross gaming revenues in 2024. This estimate represents a significant 30 percent growth compared to the level reached by Macau gaming operators in 2023.

Kiang’s 2024 gross gaming revenue estimate is also expected to stand at approximately 82 percent of the 2019 benchmark figures. The gaming market in Macau reached its peak in 2019, only to decline over the subsequent years due to pandemic-driven closures of gaming facilities. However, the market reopened on January 8, 2023, and saw rapid growth throughout the year. Analysts believe that the market will be considered fully recovered once it reaches the 2019 levels, and the casino industry is expected to continue to see a modest increase in 2025 as well.

In 2019, the city’s operators generated around US$35.6 billion in gross gaming revenues. The institution expects the industry to reach 82 percent of the 2019 tally in 2024, reaching US$29.2 billion, and a further increase to 89 percent in 2025. Kiang stated that the overall mass GGR in 2024 is expected to increase by 31 percent year-on-year to US$23.2 billion. This would represent an 18 percent increase from the 2019 level.

The estimated 2024 handle of US$29.2 billion would represent a significant 28.4 percent growth from the US$22.75 billion handled by the industry in 2023. The first half of the year is expected to contribute significantly to the annual growth, likely due to increased visits from mainland China. This major driver of the Macau gaming and hospitality sector is expected to continue the recovery towards pre-pandemic levels.

Market leaders such as Sands China Ltd, Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd, and MGM China Holdings Ltd are expected to have taken the largest market share in 2023, with CLSA estimating their gross revenue figures at about US$6.1 billion, US$4.14 billion, and US$3.31 billion, respectively. Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment are expected to maintain the largest market share in 2024.

With the 2024 gross gaming revenue forecast set at US$29.2 billion, CLSA estimates that the Macau gaming sector’s EBITDA will reach US$8.5 billion, representing 92 percent of the 2019 level. This demonstrates anticipated growth and recovery for the Macau gaming industry in the coming years.